The first big 2025box officeshowdown is almost here, and early reporting suggests that it could be big. In 2023, audiences witnessed the highly anticipated battle betweenBarbieandOppenheimeras both were released on July 21.The “Barbenheimer” phenomenon benefitted both films, withBarbieopening to $162 million andOppenheimergetting $82.4 million. Last year partially mimicked this weekend with “Glicked,” a showdown betweenGladiator IIandWicked, which the latter won by a long shot.
PerThe Quorum(viaPuck), 2025 could bring amajor box office showdown betweenLilo & StitchandMission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning. The competition is based on initial awareness and interest data. Based on polling,Lilo & StitchandMission: Impossible - The Final Reckoninghave high awareness scores of 62% and 59%, respectively. They are tied at 53% interest scores. The table notes that this could be an “epic Memorial Day showdown.”
What This Means For The Box Office
Mission: Impossible And Lilo & Stitch Could Mimic Past Patterns
While the text above the table indicates that two movies have never opened above $60 million on Memorial Day Weekend, this is not the case. In 2011,Kung Fu Panda 2andThe Hangover Part IIopened to $60.8 million and $103.4 million, respectively. In 2004 (Shrek 2andThe Day After Tomorrow), 2005 (Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the SithandMadagascar), and 2007 (Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s EndandShrek the Third), two movies were able to earn over $60 million, but one was a returning hit.
All four scenarios are apt points of comparison to theMission: ImpossibleversusLilo & Stitchbattle. In all these cases,one family-aimed movie faces off against something with an older audience, often part of major franchises.Mission: Impossibleis a major franchise movie andLilo & Stitchis a remake, so, similar to these previous films, they have built-in awareness and interest. Unlike the other cases, however, the family-aimed movieLilo & Stitchis live-action rather than animated.
Our Take On This Box Office Weekend
Both Franchises Need Some Saving
This Memorial Day weekend is a great opportunity forMission: ImpossibleandLilo & Stitchto recover their respective franchises. The previous installment,Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One,was considered an underperformer, making $571.1 million on a budget of around $291 million.Lilo & Stitchis part ofDisney’s group of live-action remakes, the most recent of which,Snow White, is being review bombed on IMDb and underperforming. As such, this Memorial Day weekend could represent box office recovery for their brand.
Lilo & Stitch
Cast
Lilo & Stitch is a live-action remake of the 2002 animated sci-fi adventure comedy directed by Dean Fleischer Camp.
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning
Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning follows Ethan Hunt and his team as they pursue a formidable AI called the Entity that has compromised global intelligence networks. With new allies and a haunting figure from Hunt’s past in pursuit, they must act quickly to avert a global catastrophe.
